Beware the "Guns of August" Syndrome

August, 1914, the European world of the 19th century was poised on the brink of a war that everyone wanted. For a century Europe had avoided the massive world wide wars of past centuries. Political and military leaders had convinced themselves that long destructive wars were a thing of the past. Economics, advances in technology, and the "infallible" tactics that military staffs of each major government formed guarenteed that a long, brutal war was impossible. As the armies marched to the cheers of the crowds the soldiers were told they would "be home before the leaves fell from the trees."

The tactics and plans of all the military staffs were anything but infallible. Millions died or were wounded in the first months of fighting and the war that was to "be over before Christmas" was to last four more years and cost the lives or more than ten million soldiers and millions of civilians and lay the ground work for a greater and more deadly war. The leaders of the powers of Europe could not have been more wrong, the Great War that started in 1914 destroyed a generation of European youth and killed four great Empires,the Russian, Austro-Hungarian, Ottoman and German, and change the course of World History.

All this because the leaders in control chose to believe what they wanted and ignored those that disagreed with the quick and successful conclusions of a victorious little war that they wanted. After all the devestation, the deaths of millions, and destruction of the 19th Century Europe a diplomat from a dead empire that wanted war said one of the most frightening remarks ever uttered by one of his professio; "This wasn't what we had in mind, we only wanted a little war."

Beware of what you want, look at the worst case as well as the best case and for God's sake put your self in the shoes of your opponent before you act.

History Repeats

George Santayna put this very clearly when he said the "those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." History is full of examples of this. My favorite is the error of fighting a war in the Russian Winter without being fully prepared. One such disaster should be enough to learn from, but for three centuries in a row a major world power attempted this and failed disasterously-1700's Sweden, 1800's France and 1900's Germany.

Intro

This blog is dedicated to the concept that forgetting the lessons of history is one of the main problem leaders, CEO's, presidents etc. face.